Don’t expect rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia on Trump’s Watch.

last Sunday President-elect Donald Trump Comment on the fall of the Bashar regime. Al-Assad in Syria Russian President Vladimir Putin is a staunch supporter of Assad. which Putin granted political asylum in Russia

“There is no reason for Russia to be there in the first place,” Trump wrote in Truth Social. Trump points to the fact that “600,000 Russian soldiers have been wounded or killed. In a war that should not have happened And it could go on forever.” Trump said Russia was in Its “currently weak position” due to “Ukraine and its poor economy”

This rebuff of Putin is likely a prelude to Trump’s Russia policy during his second term. If you think Trump and Putin are friends, don’t be fooled. There’s almost certainly no rapprochement between Moscow and Washington on Trump’s watch. Here’s why.

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President Trump (right) shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 on June 28, 2019. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

Whether President Trump succeeds in dealing with the nearly three-year-old, destructive conflict between Russia and Ukraine as he promised remains to be seen. His talent for dialogue is impatient. Is the incoming commander-in-chief unlikely to erase fundamental irreconcilable differences between Moscow and Washington? … Ukraine, where Russia and the United States They are facing each other in a proxy war. It is just one example of Russia’s national interests being in direct conflict with long-term U.S. bipartisan foreign policy.

Moscow and Washington both want to keep Ukraine within their sphere of influence. Russia considers Ukraine to be part of its strategic security sphere. Therefore, it is outside the scope of US geopolitical control. to enforce the Russian version of the Monroe Doctrine Putin has waged a brutal war against Ukraine. His goal is to prevent Ukraine from leaving NATO, a military alliance hostile in Moscow’s view. In the same way Russia considers other former Soviet states, such as Georgia and Moldova, to be ex-Soviet states. It is part of their vital interests.

Former President Donald Trump (right) meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at Trump Tower. On Friday, September 9, September 27, 2024 in New York City. (AP Photo/Julia DeMarie Nikinson)

US policy In Eurasia it has existed for almost a century and is unlikely to change significantly in the near future. This policy is guided by the so-called logic. The concept of “forward defense” was coined by John Spykman, a Dutch-American geostrategist in the 1930s. Spykman was a balance of power realist. Convince the US National Security Agency that in order to increase the chances of survival America should become involved in Asian affairs. This strategy calls for building strategic U.S. alliances. and military bases in Eurasia To protect against emerging rival powers that might threaten America.

Spykman’s doctrine is based on the thesis of Halford Mackinder, an English geographer. which presented in 1904 whoever controls Eurasia which he called the island of the world Will Command the World Mackinder believed that Eurasia was predestined to play a key role in world politics. Because it has vast natural resources and is the center of the world.

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Russian soldiers take a group photo near an M2 combat vehicle. Bradley of the United States Captured in Ukraine by Russian troops in the city of St. Petersburg city ​​of saint petersburg Russia on 1 November, 3 Nov. 2024 (Photo by Artem Priakhin/Images SOPA/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Zbigniew Brzezinski, former President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, outlined this policy in his 1997 book “The Grand Chess Board: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives.” Brzezinski echoed Mackinder and Spykman in saying that the United States must ” Make sure that no state… acquires the ability to expel the United States. Leave Eurasia or even significantly reduce their role as arbitrators.”

The Russians took Brzezinski’s strategic advice – “Controller Eurasia controls the world” – seriously. They concluded that what Washington pursued was Russian containment and territorial fragmentation. A major Russian research institute summarizes its perception of US-Russian policy as follows: “The United States will try to make other parts of the world weakened and fragmented and first of all the large Eurasian bloc. The White House pursues this strategy regardless of whether it is occupied by a conservative or liberal administration. Or whether there is or not Consensus among the elite.”

Deep-rooted distrust between Russia and the United States dates back to Soviet times. Trump is very unlikely to defeat it. At the center of this distrust is NATO expansion.

Moscow and Washington have starkly different interpretations of what was promised to Russia when US Secretary of State James Baker met with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 2. September 9, 1990, as part of negotiations for the peaceful reunification of Germany. The Russians took Baker’s famous assurance “not an inch eastward” as a promise not to accept former Soviet states into the alliance. It’s a claim that US and NATO leaders deny, with some calling it a “myth.”

Soldiers from the 24th Mechanized Corps, named after King Danylo of the Ukrainian Army. Fire the 2s5 “Hyacinth-s” self-propelled howitzer at Russian troops on the front line. In the midst of a Russian attack on Ukraine near the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on November 1, 18 Nov 2024. (Oleg Petrasiuk/Press Department of King Danylo 24th Separate Mechanized Corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Handout via REUTERS)

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, NATO recognized the Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, which had been part of the Soviet Union. and adding several former Soviet bloc countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland to the alliance. In total, 13 Eastern European states have joined NATO since 1997, reducing Russia’s buffer zone from 1,000 miles during the Soviet era to 100 miles. With a feeling of being trapped Moscow then accused the United States and NATO of violating their promises. Putin has made it his life’s mission to restore the buffer lost to NATO.

Thirty declassified American, Soviet, German, British, and French documents. It includes memcon and telecommunications at the highest written level. It was revealed that Gorbachev received what he saw as NATO’s promises not to erode Russia’s security. For example, the U.S. embassy in Bonn informed Washington that German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher Clearly clarified that “Changes in Eastern Europe and the process of German reunification” would not lead to “a weakening of Soviet security interests.”

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The same cable included language indicating that NATO should curtail “its territorial expansion eastward, that is, move closer to the Soviet border.” However, the phrase “make believe” appears to be the main verbiage used in these documents. this This contributes to differences in interpretation. This phrase reflects the informal nature of guarantees rather than legal guarantees.

That is why Putin will almost certainly not accept it. It is part of the peace deal Trump is trying to broker between Russia and Ukraine. in anything less than a formal legal guarantee from NATO, with the exception of Ukraine’s membership.

Putin doesn’t trust Trump Although there appears to be a positive connection between the two. Trump also doesn’t trust Putin. During his first tenure Trump has taken a number of actions aimed at undermining Russia’s military and economic strategy. Trump boycotts Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to create US Space Force Ordered the development of low-yield nuclear-armed cruise missiles. and authorized an operation that killed 300 Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in Syria. In 2017, Putin summed up his true political relationship with Trump: He “is not my bride. And I’m not his bride. or his groom We are running our government,” Putin told reporters at an economic summit.

President-elect Donald Trump Up to receive the award “Patriot of the Year” at Fox Nation’s Patriot Awards (Fox Nation)

Recent major policy changes This is President Biden’s. Giving Ukraine the green light to properly attack Russia with US-deployed long-range missiles is confirmation for Putin that Washington cannot be trusted. Therefore, in response to Trump’s latest request to Putin, This is reported to have happened during a telephone conversation. So as not to escalate in Ukraine Putin did the opposite. Russia has made two dramatic escalation moves. Putin approves changes to Russian nuclear doctrine By lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons. And he authorized an attack on Ukraine with a new experimental hypersonic missile called the Oreshnik. The Oreshnik had enough range to target Europe and the entire west coast of the United States, and neither the United States nor NATO could defend it.

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Putin is a product of Russia’s strategic culture. Have the worst mindset The assumption of the inevitability of conflict, deeply rooted in Russian thinking, will always drive Moscow’s foreign policy. Trump is a talented businessman. It may be able to transform U.S.-Russian relations from hostile to transactional. But Trump or not? Russia and America will never be friends.

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