The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Failing to Quickly Elect a Speaker of the House

The problem has been brewing for some time.

It’s underground Hidden beneath the surface of the water No need to recognize

Except for those who follow Congress closely.

But the problems have reached new heights since the House of Representatives stumbled in an attempt to avert a government shutdown last week.

Dozens of lawyers gather to fund Afghanistan visa project. Meanwhile, Trump has promised major spending cuts.

U.S. Capitol In Washington, D.C. on February 2, 13 Nov 2024 (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

To wit:

Congress clashes over shocking 1,500-page spending bill Then defeating a narrow 116-page bill that President Donald Trump endorsed, things got worse when the House of Representatives passed with just 174 affirmative votes for the Trump-backed bill. And today there are 38 Republicans voting. The situation got even worse when the House actually voted to avoid a government shutdown over the holidays. But the bill passed with more Democrats (196) than Republicans (170). Thirty-four GOPers voted today.

It has long been possible that House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., might have trouble winning the speaker’s gavel once the new Congress convenes at noon ET on Jan. 1. 3. Experts Congress knows Johnson could be in trouble when the shape of his House majority becomes a key issue weeks after the November election. This could become a major crisis for Johnson and congressional Republicans. When speaker voting begins a little after 1:00 PM ET next Friday.

Johnson was left bruised from last week’s government funding of Donnybrook. Four to 10 Republicans could oppose Johnson in the speaker’s race.

DONALD TRUMP says MIKE JOHNSON will ‘easily remain speaker’ if he acts ‘decisively and decisively’ on spending bills.

It has long been a possibility that Mike Johnson may have trouble winning the speaker’s gavel when the new parliament convenes on January 1. 3. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

This is the math:

The House has 434 members, with one seat vacant thanks to former Sen. Matt Getz, R-Fla., resigning his seat to this Congress a few weeks ago, even though Gaetz won re-election in November, But his resignation letter, which was read on the floor of the House of Commons, Signaling that he does not plan to serve in the new Congress, which begins in January.

Here’s the breakdown when the Congress started: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats.

Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Sen. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., remains in the House for now. So did Rep. Elise Stefanik, R.N.Y. Trump tapped her to serve as U.S. ambassador. United Nations That’s pending Senate confirmation — possibly in late January or early February. When Waltz and Stefanik resign, the GOP majority dwindles to 217-214.

But the Jan. 1 speaker election posed special challenges. This is a bar for Johnson or anyone else.: The Speaker must receive a majority of the votes from all members by voting for a specific person by name.– In other words The person with the most votes does not win. That’s what happened over and over again to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. When he routinely voted for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., to get speaker to start the convention in January 2023, it took McCarthy several days to do so. cross Appropriate criteria

Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, has been hurt by Donnybrook’s recent government funding. (Getty)

More on this in a moment.

Let’s crunch the math for Mike. Johnson is better. If there were 219 Republicans and 4 voted for someone other than him. And all Democrats voted for Jeffries. The total score would be 215 to 214, but there would be no speaker. No one receives a majority of all members to vote for someone by name. The magic number is 218 if all 434 members voted.

As a rule, this paralyzes the home. The House can do absolutely nothing until it chooses a speaker. Period.

The council cannot swear an oath on behalf of its members. Technically They are still elected by representatives. Only after the House has chosen the speaker. He or she will then take the oath of membership.

The House certainly cannot pass the law. Unable to form a committee It became paralyzed in Parliament to the point of having to choose a speaker.

Now I hope you’ll sit down for the next part.

It also means that the House cannot certify the Electoral College results. As a result, Trump became the 47th President of the United States on January 1, 6.

The House can do absolutely nothing until it chooses a speaker. Period. (Valerie Plesch/Image Partners via Getty Images)

Failure to choose a speaker has forced the House to vote again and again…

Beyond…and…over…

Until finally it touched someone.

McCarthy’s election destroyed 15 ballots over five days two years ago.

The House of Representatives went into a three-week congressional cryogenic freeze after members ousted McCarthy in October 2023. The House was burned to the ground by two speaker candidates: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. – and one candidate on the floor: Sen. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

Then you will see the problem.

Let’s consider for a moment a year ago. The House has not held a second vote to choose a speaker since President Frederick Gillett celebrated the 1923 Mass.

It took 63 ballots before the House finally settled on Speaker Howell Cobb, D-Ga., in 1849.

But that’s nothing. The longest speaker election lasted two months before the House of Representatives elected Speaker Nathaniel Banks, R.M., in 1856 using the 133rd ballot.

So anything that prolongs this into a collision with Jan. 6 – the legal day to certify election results and is currently one of the most embarrassing days in American history – is dangerous.

Johnson’s allies have called on Trump to intervene as the tangled speaker contends with threats to delay the 2024 certification.

If there is no lecturer The House of Representatives also cannot certify the Electoral College results. As a result, Trump became the 47th President of the United States on January 1, 6. (AP/J. Scott Applewhite)

To be clear: There is no dispute that Trump won the election. There is no expectation that there will be a repeat of the insurrection at the Capitol like the one four years ago. But it failed to certify the Electoral College on the day it was supposed to be completed. Especially after the 2021 experience of playing with fire. This situation would reveal yet another unprecedented fragility in the fragile American political system.

On Jan. 6, the House and Senate were supposed to meet together in Congress to form and certify the electoral votes. Any disputes over state electoral votes would be enforced. The House and Senate must debate and vote separately on those results. The election is not over until the joint session is over. and vice president (In this case, it’s Kamala Harris.) As president, the Senate will announce the winner.

Congress doesn’t have to certify the Electoral College on calendar day January 1, 6. There’s actually still a long way to go to wrap things up in 2021. The Electoral College wasn’t certified until approximately 3:52 a.m. on Jan. 1, 7. It only becomes a big problem if this drags on until noon on Jan. 1, 20. That’s when the Constitution requires president-elect to take the oath of office. take office

What happens if the Electoral College is not dealt with by January 1, 2020? President Biden is finished. So he’s gone. Like Harris Next in the line of succession for the presidency is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. There was no speaker.. So who becomes president?

On Jan. On Sept. 6, the House and Senate were supposed to meet together in Congress to form and certify the electoral votes. (Getty Images)

At that time, there was also the President pro tempore of the Senate. who is the most senior member of the majority party He or she is fourth in line to serve as president. The interim president is currently Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., but Republicans claimed control of the chamber in early January. and different from the council If it blocks the speaker The Senate is working.– That means 91-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, becomes Senate president pro tempore. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981.

If the council still has time left Trying to pick a speaker on Jan. 1, Jul. 20. Grassley is likely to be “Acting President”

I write “likely” because this has become a serious and unconstitutional turf. These are unprecedented situations, strange territories never visited in the American political experience.

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And it all depends on Mike Johnson – or indeed someone else – wrapping up the speaker vote with delivery on January 1. 3. Any spacing? The past two speaker elections, for example, have begun to challenge historical precedent.

But really, it is not clear whether the council can avoid such disrespect.

It’s about mathematics. And once again, balancing the parliamentary equation is a non-trivial matter.