gAmericans are unusually likely to die young. Compared to citizens of other developed countries, the United States has more deaths from gun violence. overdoseand car accident More than any other rich country, and its obesity rate is about 50 percent higher than the European average. Taken all of this together, the United States is rightfully considered a “death trap” for its young and middle-aged citizens. Premature death is a major cause of America’s unusually short life expectancy.
But without much media fanfare, the U.S. has recently seen a surge in good health news. In May 2024, the US government Reported Overdose deaths fell 3 percent from 2022 to 2023, a rare bright spot in a century of soaring drug deaths. in June National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Reported Traffic fatalities continue to decline after sharp increases in 2020 and 2021, and this comes despite an increase in total vehicle miles traveled. In September, the US government Announced that adult obesity rates decreased in the last count, which ended in August 2023, also in September FBI analysis Confirmed The national homicide rate has dropped by double digits.
How rare is this good news? Some government estimates include obesity rates and drug overdose deaths. Delays of one to two years have been reported. This means that these causes of death are not necessarily all decreasing today.– However, by my count This year marks the first time in the 21st century that obesity, drug overdose deaths and traffic fatalities and murder All were rejected in official data analysis. The level of premature death in the United States remains unacceptably high. But progress isn’t just dependent on where you are. It’s also about the direction you’re going. And by the latter definition, 2024 is the best year for American health reporting in decades.
It would be convenient for both effective knowledge and clarity of public policy. Few factors, if any, explain all of these trends. In the end If we can isolate a number of lessons, Together, we can build on those lessons and unleash a golden age of American health. Unfortunately, reality is messy and doesn’t always align with our penchant for simple explanations.
For example, overdose deaths have decreased. This is perhaps the most surprising news of the bunch. “This is the largest decline we have seen in recent data. Going back at least to 1999, which is amazing. as overdoses continue to increase,” said Charles Fain Lehman, a researcher at the Manhattan Institute. But the exact cause of the decline is a mystery. “I can tell you policy stories,” he said, “such as the fact that we’ve made it easier for people to access addiction treatment. And we have significantly expanded the availability of Narcan,” a rapidly emerging opioid antagonist. Reversing the effects of overdose
But Lehman said he is not sure these policy changes explain all or most of the decline in overdose deaths. “Most evidence suggests that the effect size of these measures should be small and universal across states,” he said. “It turns out that states Instead, overdose deaths were found to be decreasing. which are both large and geographically concentrated in the eastern region This is where the overdose crisis began.”
According to Lehman These facts point to other explanations. Perhaps the overdose will spread on its own. Drug waves are likely to ebb and flow in the absence of a coordinated policy response. This is because the majority of people who are likely to become addicted to serious drugs in any given generation cannot remain addicted forever. They will be cured. Seek treatment or died Or perhaps the sharp increase in suicides in 2021 has led to an unusual and unsustainable spike in death rates. “This is terrible. But for lack of a better phrase, People who die during the pandemic cannot die later. So perhaps we should always expect overdose deaths to decrease” after the COVID crisis, he said.
Another possibility is that the fentanyl available on the street has become weaker due to relatively Salmon Immigration Enforcement Under the Biden Administration “There is a concept called ‘Iron Law of Prohibition’ which states that the more the law is enforced, the more The more concentrated the drugs are,” Lehman said, perhaps the risk of confiscating contraband at the border decreases. Drug cartels have therefore changed by moving more drug units across the border. At the same time, they switch to products that are less concentrated per unit.
frequency of maysand sometimeses in the above paragraph makes my point. The reduction in overdose deaths is a direct result of good policy. The ironic results of bad policy The inevitable mathematical consequences of the many addicts who died during the pandemic year. or a combination of both It’s easier to praise a good-looking chart than it is to understand what caused the lines to change direction.
A similar issue of uncertainty holds for obesity. this fall National Health and Nutrition Examination Reported The prevalence of obesity among American adults dropped from 41.9 percent to 40.3 percent in a recent sample of thousands of people. “The prevalence of obesity is rising in the United States,” one CDC official said. tell at washington post– “We may have passed the peak of obesity.” Financial TimesJohn Burn-Murdoch write of news
Obesity has previously fallen, according to government counts. But it will continue to increase within a few years. One reason it’s thought that times are different is the rise of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Mounjaro, which are amazing at reducing appetite. which leads to weight loss About one in eight Americans have taken a GLP-1 drug, and one in 16 are currently taking one. According to a survey of the Ministry of Public Health Health non-profit KFF– It seems inevitable that as more and more Americans seek treatments that mask their appetites, Obesity should be reduced mechanically.
Another possibility is Developed countries may be facing natural limits for overall obesity by 2023, a team of Greek researchers found. write Obesity rates may stabilize in developed countries in the coming years as “obesity reaches its biological limit … (or) the saturation threshold for the proportion of people who may become obese.” International evidence suggests that obesity can “Steady among children and adolescents of the most advanced economies since 2000,” they write (they also admit that “Tendencies in adults are diverse and ambiguous. and does not clearly support the obesity plateau hypothesis.”)
After all, violent crime has dropped precipitously in recent years—according to some data. One of the fastest decreasing homicide rates since 1960. One explanation is that the early 2020s marked the second time in a decade that the United States Experiencing double criticism in what some sociologists call “double criticism” The “Ferguson effect” theory holds that public anger over police shootings reduces police activity and leads to increased violent crime. Adherents to this theory argue that in 2014, Michael’s death Brown sparked a backlash against police, and in 2020, George’s death. Floyd sparked another response. In both cases High-profile killings cause social unrest. This may result in a reduction in police activity. This may cause an overall increase in violent crime. When the health emergency ends The police are better and the violence disappeared.
Another related explanation is Violent crime has soared with lockdowns and other social disruptions. This kept young men from adjusting to their daily routines in 2020 and 2021. But in the “Great Recovery” of 2022, young people returned to pre-COVID schedules. And violent behavior quickly returned. to pre-COVID rates, as John Roman, director of the Center for Public Safety and Justice at NORC at the University of Chicago, said. atlantic oceanRogé Karma The start of the decline in violent crime coincides with the start of the 2022–23 academic year, when pre-pandemic norms return for America’s teens.
The theory is that the pandemic created a short-lived bubble. of abnormal and life-threatening behavior It will also help explain why the United States Therefore, we saw an increase in automobile deaths during the first year of the outbreak. In March 2022 atlantic oceanThe group’s Olga Khazan summed up the sociology frenzy at the time pithily: “Everyone is acting strangely!” But as time passed, People act strangely slightly less above all else They have returned to pre-pandemic driving manners again, that is, usually recklessly, rather than completely recklessly out of control.
Public policy may play a small role. But it has implications for reducing crime and automobile deaths as well. One creative explanation from BloombergJustin FoxNamely, Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan has sent hundreds of billions of dollars to governors and mayors. This allows them to increase law enforcement spending to crack down on both violent criminals and out-of-control drivers. In fact, State and local government spending increases in 2022 almost 8 percentThis is the largest annual increase since the Great Recession. This coincides with voters pushing for stricter policing standards as “Minneapolis voters reject plan to replace city’s police department.” “San Fran residents Siskan Throws Out Progressive District Attorney” and “New Yorkers Elect Former Cop as Mayor,” Fox wrote.
gsupremacy of governmentThere is now a “divisiveness” in the debate. “How to Make America Healthier,” as Gina Kolata from The New York Times latest point out– On one side are technology optimists, such as Elon Musk, who believe in science and technology. “Nothing will improve the health, lifespan, and quality of life of Americans more than making GLP inhibitors as inexpensive as possible for the public,” he said. Post On the other side, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was highly skeptical of technology. The same goes for nuclear power plants and polio vaccines. And he emphasizes that “lifestyle” is the most important determinant of health.
Kennedy got it right: Our lifespan depends as much on our behavior as it does on our behavior. with that determined by the medical health care system But instead of worrying about an effective vaccine We should focus on the truly horrifying causes of premature death in America. and what really needs to be done to get rid of them And find out what’s happened in the last few years.
