International affairs often present options to policymakers. It is not between good and bad choices. But between really bad and really bad choices. The duty of statesmen is to accept those alternatives. Swallowing hard And move on to the worst. So it is in Ukraine.
There was a time when it looked as if Ukraine could take back territory seized by Russia by force. And it could happen if the Biden administration uses courage and foresight. and lead a global coalition to arm Ukraine both quantitatively and qualitatively urgently, and over the long term if Ukraine begins to acquire more advanced tanks, aircraft and missiles than the United States. And the Allies actually provided it, and soon after the war began. Now it will be in a different position. For the Biden administration to discuss its fears and fail to take decisive action instead is a colossal mistake for which Ukraine is paying a dear price.
But we are where we are. And in one school of thought, things will get worse: President-elect Donald Trump Some are believed to hate Ukraine and adore Vladimir. Putin of Russia By nature, he is a lonely person. Insulting America’s European Allies and do not understand or care about the strategic and humanitarian consequences of abandoning Kiev to its fate. As evidence, members of this school point to Trump’s first term and the harsh words of those around him. Some people Including his vice president-elect.
Maybe. But that’s unlikely. A policy paper Presented by a group of thinkers close to Trump. and co-authored by designated ambassador for Ukraine Keith Kellogg points in the other direction. It describes an agreement that included a ceasefire to end the conflict. Security guarantees for Ukraine Restoration assistance and partial sanctions relief (but not complete) for Russia The characteristics of the new national security adviser and secretary of state will be similar.
What matters most is Trump’s own psychology. The passage of four years has not transformed him into a suave cosmopolitan or a starry-eyed idealist. But he’s not in the same spot he occupied during his surprising first term, either. Now he is seeking his place in history. And part of it—as evidenced by his speeches—is the desire to be a great peacemaker. He has expressed sympathy regarding Ukraine. Meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky and listen from time to time with pro-Ukraine former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
above all else It seems his former admiration for Putin may no longer be the same in 2017, with a new president who is startled by his own success. Look up at the strong Russian man. But that strong man became the president who started a war that was supposed to last three weeks but lasted nearly three years. It caused more than 600,000 deaths in his own virtually incapable army. weakens the economy and expanding the boundaries of hostile NATO. alliance by pushing Sweden and Finland into the fold Surprised by coup attempt Want North Korean troops and Iranian drones Because he doesn’t have enough. of his own and set his country on the path to becoming a vassal of China.
Judging by the insulting tone of the Russian media and interview of persons linked to the regime This is not Putin’s view of things. That may reflect the aging tsar’s isolation and arrogance more than reality. Trump, for his part, survived two assassination attempts. Achieve historical return from political death. and recorded a decisive election victory. may believe that he should now be the dominant partner in the relationship He doesn’t get emotionally involved. Even with dictators And it is very likely that Putin will find himself surprised by Trump’s handling of it.
What might a deal look like? A modified version of the Kellogg plan. It is acceptable if not desirable given the circumstances: postponing NATO membership is not a terrible sacrifice for Ukraine as long as it does not suffer from foreclosure. The reality is that a number of NATO states Especially Hungary It will prevent annexation of Ukraine in the near term. And anyway The membership process is also time consuming and difficult. In the same way If Ukraine does not have to permanently abandon Russian-held territory. Ukraine also has hope for the future. Even though it’s just as painful with the present
What is most important is Ukraine’s absolute independence, security and reconstruction. Russia must have no influence. No rights reserved There is no explicit or implied restraint on all aspects of Ukrainian politics and society. Recovery assistance can be provided by Europeans and other donors. This could come from frozen Russian assets, however, guarantees of security must be drawn extra thickly.
For those security guarantees to mean anything, there must be a significant number of troops ready to fight in Ukraine. And those forces must be overwhelmingly European. A small force intended to act as a connecting line will not be enough. But it was a more substantive force, such as the Polish side, the faction led by France and England. And it could be the Turkish side or some other composite, in total, not a force of a few thousand observers. Instead, it is a force of about 100,000, with components led by Europe’s two nuclear powers. If European states could muster the power to mobilize and deploy those forces, They will have a much better chance of securing key U.S. enabling elements such as missile defense. or air power based in western Ukraine. It would be a similar type of guarantee to NATO, although less formal.
The key question is whether Europe can overcome such requirements. And will Russia be included? For the first Now is the moment of truth. And responding to that demand would require countries such as England, France and even Germany. who was his foreign minister Just opened the door Sending troops to Ukraine—to be willing to expand their military forces and keep them in the forward position, other countries, especially Poland, the Baltic states, and the Nordics, are in the midst of expanding their militaries. and is committed to protecting Ukraine.
for Russia The key will be to shake Putin’s confidence that Trump has succumbed to his psychological and political disinterest in Ukraine. The United States may need to lift all restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons in Ukraine (as the term National Security Advisor Mike Waltz’s recommendations) relying on countries such as Germany to do more by providing long-range systems such as Taurus Missile And above all else Dramatically increase the scope of sanctions
That last measure is especially important: sanctions on Russian giant Gazprom hurt the Russian economy. Truly severe sanctions on all entities that do business with Russian companies would be much more punitive. And while the Russian economy continues to The falling ruble Interest rates of 21 percent and higher inflation. This results in the internal problem of the country being unable to find enough people to serve in the military. and an industry that is unable to provide the military technology it needs. Tensions in Russia are less visible than those of us in Ukraine. and is now being repressed by an almost totalitarian state. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t there. A regime that is afraid of any form of conflict. who were still unwilling to mobilize the young men of the saints Saint Petersburg and Moscow They are clearly afraid. The good news is that by controlling the information space within Russia. Putin can picture that outcome as a success—at least temporarily.
All speculation But it’s not impossible. Europe must rise to the challenge. Trump must control events. And Russia will be shocked. An event like this is possible. More importantly, there must be hope and work for it. And applaud if it happens.
