The past two weeks in South Korean politics have seen enough twists and turns to fill a Korean Netflix series. President Yoon Seok-yeol declared martial law. Shocking even some of his own advisers, late at night the National Legislative Assembly overturned the meeting. A few days later The besieged president asked for forgiveness from his people. Meanwhile, a corruption scandal engulfs the first lady. Lawmakers voted to impeach Yoon last weekend. and suppress his power It was transferred to a caretaker government run by the prime minister. Yoon now remains in office. The country’s highest court will decide whether he can stay.
Korea’s national crisis is far from over. Government dysfunction is likely to continue into the new year. which affects the economy and society of the country The crisis also threatens to undo the important progress that Korea has made in strengthening its ties with the West. And it leaves Seoul ill-prepared to deal with Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, along with all the dangers he poses to Korean security.
The nearby seeds of this disaster were planted last spring. The opposition defeated Yoon’s ruling party in April’s national elections. Since then, Lee Jae-myung, Yoon’s political enemy, has helped ensure that the legislature blocks all of the president’s bills. Including the national budget. (Lee faces corruption charges Including charges of sending money to North Korea And the appeals court’s decision will determine whether he can run to replace Yoon. (He denies any wrongdoing.) Meanwhile, Yoon’s wife, Kim Con-hee, has become increasingly the subject of public anger. Regarding allegations of receiving lavish gifts on December 3, it was an apparent attempt to crush his political opposition. and silenced critics of his wife, Yoon. announce martial law.
But Yoon’s decision also reflects a deeper structural problem. The Korean constitution allows the president to serve a five-year term without the possibility of re-election. As a result, halfway through his term, Both their own party and the opposition are likely to distance themselves from the president as they look for a successor. The process has already begun for Yoon, who takes office in the spring of 2022. Many Korean presidents have become idiosyncratic and unpopular in the second half of their terms. They try to suppress their opponents and consolidate their power without caring about the people. A. Ultimately. They don’t have a re-election campaign to worry about.
That said, even when their power was at its peak. Korean presidents rarely receive authority from the people to govern. That’s because It’s been more than three decades. that one-third of the country’s voters identify as conservative. One-third are progressives. and one-third are moderate or undecided. Yun, for example, is a conservative who won less than 1 percentage point in the election and is not enjoying a political honeymoon. before his popularity dropped He was very disliked before martial law was declared. And it was clear that there was no other way to turn around his political fortunes.
The president is also at risk from the start of his term due to elements in Korean culture that promote a zero-sum political view. The country’s deep ideological divisions contribute to this problem. But it is rooted in a concept called numberIt is central to many Koreans’ emotional identity. Loosely translated, it means “dissatisfaction over past injustices.” number It forces each side to not just defeat the other. But it also destroys it. For example, the opposition forces led by Lee has mercilessly attacked the First Lady causing large protests and has made her character look bad. Meanwhile, government forces are expected to pursue corruption cases against Lee. Until he is disqualified from running for election in the next election. If not imprisoned And in addition to suing Yoon The opposition has also opened a criminal case against him for treason. Some of these lawsuits may be justifiable. But Korean politicians have strong incentives to act beyond reason.
The next step in resolving the crisis lies with the Constitutional Court. who will make the final decision regarding Yoon’s lawsuit. It has ruled on the expulsion of presidents before. In 2004, a court overturned President Roh Moo-hyun’s indictment and allowed him to expire. Most recently, in 2017, it supported the impeachment of President Park Geun- Hye, the court has up to 180 days to decide on Yoon’s sentence. Politics will inevitably play a role. Because all parties have come together to fill the court’s three vacancies with friendly judges. If no seats are filled A single judge’s dissenting opinion was enough to overturn the impeachment and reinstall Yoon as president.
In the history of Korean political turmoil These accusations hardly rank high: Four of the country’s 13 presidents (including Park) have been jailed, with one committing suicide after leaving office. One person was shot in the head by a bodyguard. and another was forced into exile (in Hawaii) until his death. Many years ago, I attended an event where I saw a former U.S. president. Three people gathered in one place. And I thought: This cannot happen in Korea.–
Government dysfunction costs South Korea Korean stock market plummets after Yoon declares martial law and the national currency depreciated rapidly (The stock market has recovered.) Those investing in South Korea now put a price on political instability. Just like they did with the security threat from North Korea. Other stubborn problems include low birth rates. Underemployment among college-educated people Doctors’ strike that halts elective medical procedures Most have not been fixed. Korea’s powerful brokers were too busy fighting among themselves.
Domestic concerns may soon be the least of Korea’s worries. Trump’s soon return to the White House This would make the alliance between the United States And Korea was put to the test during a time when Seoul only had a caretaker government. And there is no election scheduled in the near future. If there is no permanent leader to do this on behalf of Korea Trump is also likely to follow through on his pledge to impose more tariffs. He may call for renegotiation of America’s standing agreement with Seoul. To protect free trade and defense cost sharing. Perhaps more frightening is that Trump could withdraw nearly 30,000 U.S. ground troops in Korea, something he tried and failed to do during his first term. He may rekindle his friendship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and strike a peace deal over Seoul’s head. These things can happen very quickly. As one former senior Trump official told me: Speaking to the incoming administration on condition of anonymity, “Things will change not just in the first 100 days, but in the first 100 hours.”
With many chaotic situations South Korea therefore needs to get its leaders in touch with Trump early. Indeed, that’s Yoon’s plan: He was angling to attend the Mar-a-Lago conference before the inauguration last month, but now Korea doesn’t have it. Elected leaders support the first months of the new U.S. administration.
Yoon enacted some policies that were widely praised. and connect his country more strongly to the world. Especially with the West Under Yoon’s leadership, South Korea improved relations with Japan. Advanced trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States. Join the Chips 4 Alliance for Semiconductor Supply Chain and Export Control. Investing in electric vehicle battery production in the United States and support Ukraine Now these and other policies will be tainted by his accusations and attacked by his associates. Seoul, on the other hand, is likely to retreat on all fronts.
So far, America’s response to the political crisis in Seoul has been calm and cautious. The statement stressed the importance of democratic flexibility and the rule of law. The European Union is somewhat stronger. They called for a speedy and democratic resolution of the crisis. They pointed out the importance of South Korea’s supply chain and its support for Ukraine.
For many Koreans, they only know democracy. Yoon’s declaration of martial law brought to light the country’s history as a military dictatorship. Instead of a Korean drama, the #1 Korean title on Netflix earlier this month was a movie about the final declaration of martial law in 1979. Clearly, real life both past and present provides more than enough excitement.
