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Dictators appear stable and virtually invulnerable until the day they fall. The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad collapsed in a matter of days. In the face of attacks led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a US-based group, consider terrorist organization But Syria’s civil war is now mostly over. Hundreds of thousands. dead–
I wrote it more than a decade ago in support of Western intervention in Syria. Back when the butcher’s bill was still in the tens of thousands, and finally give up When Assad repeatedly used chemical weapons and got away with it, I Predicted At a time when President Barack Obama’s decision to pursue military action would undermine America’s position in the Middle East. Empower Iran and made Russia the first major outpost in the region. Sadly, some of my worst fears came true. As bodies pile up in the rubble of Syria for the next decade. (Obama’s defenders point to congressional opposition But he claims he has the authority to act alone. And I think he’s right. His last-minute reversal This is a case study that I used to teach at the Naval War College. His national security team was shocked. And in my opinion It’s not a beautiful story)
I won’t even begin to predict Syria’s future. But I can identify one of the biggest losers. (Aside from Assad, too.) Now that this nightmare is over: Vladimir Putin.
That is, unless it’s Donald. Trump will ride his horse to his rescue.
Syria symbolizes Russia’s desire to return to great power status. It is a sticking point in the Middle East that even Putin’s Soviet predecessors never achieved. It is difficult to overestimate the value of such a position. It is close to important western energy and water resources. against any past or present Russian government. In 1973, the Soviets attempted to jump into the region when they invite The United States joined them in placing Soviet and American troops between Israel and Egypt during the Yom Kippur War. The White House rejected the offer. And the Kremlin said it would participate with or without the U.S. The Nixon administration’s response was to order U.S. forces. Raise the world level Nuclear Alert Status– The Soviets received the message.
Some 40 years later, Russian jets soared so regularly over the skies of the Middle East that U.S. and Russian military commanders You must keep the line open. between each other to eliminate conflicts in work
Meanwhile, Russia’s geopolitical position in Syria has collapsed. Putin’s prestige and credibility have also been severely affected. Putin has long prided himself on being an ally who never cuts in and runs away. As my friend Nick Gvosdev, a veteran Russia observer who serves as director of the National Security Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told me today: “In the Middle East Putin often compares the American president’s immorality to his own. unwavering support for those he views as Russia’s loyal allies; He markets this consistency as a selling point for why he is a better mediator for regional disputes.”
However, Putin helped seal Assad’s fate when Russia invaded Ukraine. It divided Russia’s interests and capabilities so poorly that HTS and other rebel groups Launching the attack Moscow was unable to provide much help. Now the world has seen Assad chased out of his own palace. Meanwhile, Putin has done nothing. A phenomenon that casts doubt on both Putin’s authority and the value of his words.
Putin is among others. which he made himself Russian economy suffering from sanctions and the costs of military adventures in Ukraine On the ground in Ukraine His troops were advancing slowly. Go through the meat grinder in a war that is expected to end in a week. North Koreans are fighting alongside Russia. and senior Russian officers bombed In the streets of Moscow The sprawling Russian Federation now looks like a banana republic in need of help from the hermit kingdom of Pyongyang. And it couldn’t even keep one of its generals safe in the nation’s capital.
Putin’s bad year could be a good opportunity for the West and besieged Ukrainians. If the Americans and their allies continue to put a strain on the Russian military on the battlefield and the Russian economy on the world market. or in other words If it were someone other than Trump is about to become the leader of the free world
Trump openly praises Putin and is reported to have Already spoken with him many times since leaving the White House in 2021, he is unlikely to press the West’s advantage. Instead, a Press conference Yesterday, Trump called President Joe Biden’s decision to let the Ukrainians use long-range weapons a “no-no” to the United States. Procured to attack deep into Russia as “stupid” and complains he was not consulted “I don’t think that should be allowed. Not when there is a possibility And it’s certainly not just a few weeks before I take office,” Trump said, adding that he may reverse Biden’s policies.
So what exactly would Trump have done differently? During his campaign, Trump say He could end the war in one day. Now he say that the war “It is a difficult war; It is disgusting,” with people “killed on a scale no one has ever seen before.” (Fact check: People have been killed on such a scale in many modern wars But to Trump’s credit he’s concerned.) Trump claims to want a peace deal. The problem is that, in practice, any “peace deal” means allowing Putin to keep his empire in check. As he prepares for a new battle
Trump has it. name General Keith Kellogg retires as special envoy to Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg (who. accept Russia’s prospect that the war was spurred in part by Moscow’s fears that Ukraine would join NATO) has argued that it will continue to arm Ukraine if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire. This may seem like a difficult norm. But it’s true. Putin knows this game well. And he will repeat his Crimea plan in 2014 and 2015, agreeing to peace talks. while simultaneously engaging in deceptive acts and ceasefire violations behind the scenes. Weapons for Ukraine will be depleted. Western nations will look away in shame. And Putin’s tank will come back as soon as he can’t breathe.
I hope I’m wrong. And smarter bosses have prevailed on Trump to capitalize on Putin’s misfortune. (I’m not sure there’s anyone like that in a circle that includes adviser Elon Musk and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.) It’s more likely that Trump will continue his campaign of revenge at home while Russia follows their lead. satisfied
Events in Syria have provided a historic opportunity. But sometimes humans and time don’t meet.
Related:
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Today’s news
- Ukrainian security agency officials say Ukraine is responsible. assassinated bomb Head of the Russian Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Defense Forces
- Luigi Mangione, accused of murdering UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson Indicted by a New York grand jury on one count of murder. at the first level in promoting terrorism; Charged with two counts of murder in the second degree. and weapons and forgery charges. Mangione’s attorney declined to comment on the charges.
- Technology consultant found guilty of manslaughter fatal stabbing From Bob Lee, the tech executive who helped create Cash App.
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evening reading
Bob Dylan’s Carnival Act
by James Parker
Everything, as Charles Péguy said, begins with magic and ends with politics. Unless you’re Bob Dylan. If you’re Bob Dylan, you start politics and become mysterious. You start out as a hobo apprentice trying to sing the song of change. under protest You became the chosen spokesperson and prophet for the feeling of the Great Disruption aka the 60s; Then, after making a harsh gesture and separating, You withdraw. You make it concrete; You throw it all away And you drift into the contours of your being. Where will you be until They give you the Nobel Prize.–
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