Moscow can try to secure its most important assets in Syria through cooperation with the Alawite Autonomous Region. If that community moves quickly to create an autonomous region
The shocking fall of President Bashar Al-Assad of Syria Not only does it cause the loss of power in that country. But it also raises many unanswered questions. One of the most important concerns concerns the fate and future of the Alawite minority community, which Assad and his inner circle admire. Assad’s dictatorship began when Bashar’s father, Hafez, seized control of the country in 1970. The government that Bashar inherited after his father died in 2000 is known as Baathist, which is Socialist ideology and the Arab League But the heart of the regime lies —And more importantly It is seen as an Alawite community project at the expense of Syria’s Sunni majority. What happens to that community now will say a lot about whether post-Assad Syria coalesces into a stable and pluralistic country—or descends into ever-increasing sectarian chaos.
Alawism is a descendant of Shi’ite Islam. But the faith has been almost unanimously considered heretical by both Sunni and Shia administration officials since its emergence in the 9th century. As a result, the Alawis have become an isolated group. tightly bound and often secretive groups struggling to survive in their homeland on the coast and mountains of northeastern Syria. During French colonial rule after World War I, Paris toyed with the creation of an independent Alawi state in eastern Syria. northern part of the area that would become Lebanon But the project failed.
Still, the Alawites became a favored minority under the French. They were strongly encouraged to join and were heavily promoted within the developing Syrian army. In the 1970s, Hafez al-Assad, Air Force General It seized power and instituted a highly repressive political system that lasted until this weekend.
Dictator Assad does not rely on support from Alawites alone. Many minorities in Syria Christians, Druze and Jews, including Christians, see Assad as a true protector of the community’s minorities. The fact that even the Alawis had refused to fight for him during the past week. It shows that the rationalization of support eventually breaks down.
Still, Alawis fear a future without a regime intent on protecting them. The coalition poised to take over the country is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist organization that was once an ally of ISIS and later al-Qaeda. Oh This is a dire situation for a community that even “moderate” Muslim extremists have long viewed as heretics and apostates, HTS claims to have moderated. And its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, promises tolerance towards Shiites, Christians, Druze and Alawis, but suspicion is inevitable.
One curious aspect of Assad’s downfall is the fact that he did not even attempt to retreat to Alawi strongholds in northeastern Syria. He maintains a significant elite military force in and around Damascus, which is deeply involved in the regime’s history of brutality. And in many cases There is everything to fear from the new Sunni Islamist order. These groups also have an interest in protecting and controlling the remaining constituencies. and maintain legal and illegal business activities as much as possible. In other words, they may lose their leader. But they have not lost their motivation to create a self-governing territory.
Assad is no longer in the picture, though. The new coalition may also be unable to stop further Syrian fragmentation. There is already an autonomous Kurdish area in the north, HTS and its Turkish-backed allies. invaded from Idlib province northwestern syria where they maintain a small state of the Islamist group quietly Israel is moving quickly to control the surrounding sphere of influence. Occupied Golan Heights which claims to have been integrated Unless Syria can quickly unify using a consensus government that is blessed but not dominated by HTS and Turkey, and that does not threaten religious minorities. The Alawi community and remnants of the former regime could also attempt to create their own de facto regional autonomous region.
The most likely central location is the coastal city of Tartus. It has an overwhelming 80 percent Alawi majority. The surrounding population is mostly Alawi, and most others are Christians. Equally important Russia, the most important supporter of the Assad government It maintains all the important warm water harbors in Tartus. It is an asset that Russian leaders have valued for centuries and are unlikely to want to lose now. The port is critical to Russia’s supply lines to Africa. In addition to other important duties Russia is also working to rebuild a former Soviet submarine base nearby. A continued Russian presence in western Syria will be used to maintain existing signals intelligence centers.
Even if Moscow is no longer able to maintain power and influence in Damascus, But it has managed to secure its most important assets in Syria through cooperation with the Alawite Autonomous Region. If that community and the remnants of the former regime move quickly to establish It would be an ironic echo of the French Alawite state project that failed in the 1920s, largely because of their own divisions. The Alawai therefore never received an independent state. But under the Assad group They lead the coalition that has ruled Syria for more than half a century. They may soon attempt to regain de facto independence within Syria, which they once inadvertently traded for control of the entire country. What is clear is that The long era of Alawi domination in Syria has ended.
