Until last week The Syrian civil war is a classic example of ‘Frozen conflict’: 2020 ceasefire ends fighting But the two sides were unable to reach a permanent political agreement. Only a small fraction of this has escalated to the level of an ongoing war, and yet the country has not been told to actually be at peace.
An uprising of conflict is surprisingly unlikely under these circumstances. Especially because of the surrounding environment. Syria has changed in recent years. Since the war began in 2011, President Bashar al-Assad has relied on support from Russia and Iran-backed Shia militias. to seize power and fight against rebel forces Moscow is currently busy with Ukraine. And Tehran’s so-called Resistance Axis was attacked by Israel. Anti-Assad rebels seized the channel. Within days they had captured territory across northwestern Syria, including Aleppo, the country’s commercial center.
The sudden thaw in Syria reveals the folly of ignoring a frozen conflict. The post-2020 peace has resulted in many countries thinking that Syria should not be a priority. As long as the warriors don’t exchange guns But ignoring conflict when it’s frozen often means being forced to resolve it at unexpected times. This is when the stakes are higher. Syria’s war now risks bringing in many foreign powers, such as Turkey, a NATO country that supports the opposition; Iran and Russia Assad’s main backer, the United States, which maintains hundreds of boots on the ground, Syria’s neighbors Israel, Lebanon and Iraq. and the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which have supported Assad in the past and the opposition, respectively. As Syria shows The frozen conflict could intensify at any time. Leaving it unattended is not only short-sighted; But it can also be disastrous.
phase frozen conflict used to be popular In the years after the collapse of the Soviet Union To explain sovereignty disputes in republics such as Georgia and Moldova. where Russian-backed separatists fought against the new independent government. It currently works in more than a dozen areas around the world. This includes situations where the two sides have not responded to each other in decades, such as in China’s spat with Taiwan. But there are also conflicts like the one in Syria. The fighting never stopped but the frontline barely moved.
Conflicts usually stop when the balance of power around neither side has a decisive advantage in the military push. And it tends to dissolve in two situations. One such situation is when the balance of power changes. Just like what happened in Syria. in which the rebels found themselves with an advantage; Alternatively, one side may be so motivated to achieve its goals that it is willing to accept the risks and costs associated with all-out war. This is Vladimir Putin’s calculations in 2022 when he organizes a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. After nearly a decade of frozen conflict in the Donbass
Conflicts of this type generally resist diplomatic resolution. That is why these conflicts are stagnant in the first place. But that does not mean that regional or global powers should not strive to find peaceful solutions to the world’s struggles. A sudden thawing of a dispute can cause damage to neighboring or even distant countries, such as waves of refugees. trade disruption economic depression civilian casualties The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the most dramatic example today. By pulling various states throughout the Middle East and beyond.
The United States has extraordinary power and persuasiveness in resolving frozen conflicts. But in the past few years America has chosen to ignore those conflicts. For more than a decade, the United States Little strategic effort is devoted to Syria. This is despite the fact that hundreds of American soldiers are still stationed there. last week The White House took more than two days to prepare the pro form. statement That doesn’t do anything more. “Reducing the level of violence”
And Syria isn’t the only frozen conflict to fall off America’s priority list. During his first tenure President Donald Trump has never filled a major vacancy at the State Department. This made even some normal diplomatic tasks impossible. Let alone the continued care and attention needed to resolve stubborn disputes, even so, Trump produced two historic agreements in 2020. The first was an economic agreement between Serbia and Koso. Wow! It is in what can be considered a frozen conflict since 1990. The second is the Abraham Accords. This normalizes long-standing relations between Israel and the four Arab countries.
But the Trump administration has not had the patience to follow up. The Abraham Accords failed to address the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. It is considered the world’s most dangerous freezing conflict. As a result, the agreement does not meet the conditions that would allow most Arab countries, such as regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia, to enter. Accept Israel In the same way Trump’s diplomatic bromance with Kim Jong Un has long featured photo ops. But there is still a lack of relief from North Korea’s nuclear crisis.
Frozen conflicts in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula are both important and intractable. Others, however, may be more vulnerable to diplomatic intervention, such as the civil war in Somalia, which has stalled on multiple fronts. The region that broke away from Somaliland has developed a relatively successful economy and such a political regime. score Much better than Freedom House’s index than its neighbors. But neither Somalia nor any other state recognizes the territory’s independence. and Somaliland’s ongoing clashes with neighboring autonomous regions such as Puntland and Katomo. It can become more severe at any time. Maintaining internationally recognized sovereignty may allow the territory to enter into international treaties and participate in global trade. This will ultimately move the territory and Somalia towards lasting peace. A diplomatic push involving major powers such as the United States and regional giants such as Ethiopia, which supports Somaliland, and Türkiye, which stands by Somalia.
The next conflict to end the freeze may be one that the outside world has forgotten. But that has the same potential as Syria. To bring outside powers into a confrontation that no one wants. Take Cyprus, for example, which has been disputed by Türkiye and Greece for decades. One side may choose to jump into the fray. Raise the stakes for different countries Across the Mediterranean Including France, Egypt, Israel and Libya.
When the hot war ended The world is tempted to consider that there are fewer conflicts that require resolution. But in reality opposite Frozen conflict is an opportunity for outside powers. Even private sector and NGOs will engage with the parties and try to move them towards resolution. In 2007, Nelson Mandela founded the Elders Group, an NGO that tries to find solutions to difficult conflicts. It will be the most editable in the world. The current president is former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2016 for his role in easing Colombia’s long-running and often entrenched internal conflict.
History suggests that the most effective approach to resolving frozen conflicts is multilateralism. The government and officials across the country work together to mediate disputes. Deteriorating relations between world powers will undoubtedly make such coordination more difficult and necessary.
